POP & POLITICS

Don't make fun of lawyers

Jurors dismissed from case for making fun of lawyer.  Having been to law school, I can only imagine what a dork this guy was.  The jurors imitation must've been pretty funny. 

The Bill Clinton Dollar

Every state had a Quarter, and now every President will have a Dollar Coin.  Four new presidents a year will grace the Dollar Coin (yielding to the politics that put her there in the first place, Sacagawea Dollar Coins will still be minted). 

If they catch on, Dollar Coins will save the U.S. 500 million dollars a year in printing costs. 

Personally, I'm anxious for Millard Fillmore and Chester Arthur to get their due. 

Idol outrage

I can't believe Constantine got voted out of American Idol.  Along with Carrie, he was one of two performers I looked forward to hearing from every week.  ABC News is doing a major expose on American Idol next Wednesday night.  Aside from the threatened lawsuit by FOX, having a fan favorite like Constantine unceremoniously dumped (in favor of slob Scott Savol and ho hum Anthony Federov) will be the biggest boost imaginable.  If I was a conspiracy theorist, I'd say the fix was in.  If that's what ABC will suggest, they picked a great week to air the special. 

Ed Cox for Senate

Richard Nixon's son-in-law, Ed Cox, may be just the man to defeat Hillary Clinton in 2006.  From all accounts, he's a brilliant attorney with lots of government experience (SUNY Board of Trustees, New York Commission on Judicial Selection).  A long shot?  Of course.  Impossible?  The best thing about politics is that nothing is ever impossible.  At a minimum, by giving her a serious challenge, he ties her up physically and financially when she would otherwise be setting the stage for her Presidential bid.  In 2002 we gave John Kerry a free pass back to the Senate, which gave him time to campaign and raise money.  Let's not do that again. 

Not a bluff

Looks like the "nuclear option" is not a bluff.  It doesn't even look like they're holding out for a better deal.  Can't wait to see what the "fallout" is. 

A switch in time saved 100?

I've been skeptical about the "nuclear option" since Senate Republicans announced that it was on the table.  Everything in the Senate works by unanimous consent agreements.  A single Senator has the power to gum up the works in the entire chamber for time immemorial.  If the Republicans had Dick Cheney, as President of the Senate, rule that fillibusters do not apply to judicial nominations, the Democrats would have no choice but to tie the Senate in knots.  Nobody is more upset than I am about the fillibusters, but the "nuclear option" would effectively be the end of Social Security and Tax Code Reform.  President Bush, with 3 and 1/2 years left, would never win another legislative victory. 

The threat of the "nuclear option", however, is brilliant.  According to the New York Times, Democrats are proposing a compromise. 

Franklin Roosevelt, who watched the Supreme Court invalidate scores of New Deal initiatives, threatened a "court packing scheme," where he would add enough new Justices to uphold the New Deal (the number of Supreme Court Justices is not in the Constitution; the number is set by Federal law).  It was widely regarded as a disaster.  The Supreme Court, fearing what this change would do to the Court, reversed course, and started upholding FDR's legislation.  It was called "the switch in time that saved 9." The New Deal legislation was upheld, and the Court stayed at 9 members.  A brilliant bluff. 

I have always thought that the "nuclear option" was a brilliant bluff, on the level of Court packing.  Senator Joe Biden of Delaware, a pioneer in the game of opposing nominations (Robert Bork), suggested that out of the 7 nominees being fillibustered, they Senate should confirm all but the most extreme 2.  That's a pretty good deal, and it would hold out hope for important domestic legislation yet. 

If the Democrats offer a good compromise, could this be the switch in time that saved 100? 

Watch more TV!

Oh this is better than finding out that drinking beer is good for you.  Almost.  Professor Yin, one of the brightest people in the blogosphere (whose TV obsession makes me feel less guilty about mine), writes that watching more television can make you smarter.  I've gotta go, commercials are over. 

Frist wins the second primary?

When Frist became Majority Leader, backed by 2008 hopeful George Allen, instead of 2008 contender Rick Santorum, my feeling was that he had won the first primary of the 2008 election cycle. 

John McCain has come out against the "nuclear option," where Senate Republicans would declare fillibusters against judges against the rules.  Frist, on the other hand, is finally showing some muscle (way too late, in my estimate). 

I reported earlier that Frist would address, via satelite, "Justice Sunday," an event organized by the Family Research Council.  This article in the Washington Post describes the event, which was broadcast to 61 million households across the country.  Earlier estimates pegged the actual viewership at around 1 million people.  By making inroads with Evangelical Christians, the largest and most active part of the Republican base, on an issue where John McCain disagrees with the majority, represents a major triumph for Frist. 

I don't think Frist has what it takes to be President.  He's never quite tough enough, quite sure enough, quite as conservative in the Senate.  He's got his father's fortune, though politicians hate to drop their personal wealth on something they supposedly want so badly.  Frist was a bored doctor who hadn't even voted who decided one day, back in 1994, that he'd like to be a U.S. Senator.  Sometime later, he became a bored Senator who wanted to be President.  For someone without much to say for himself, however, he sure seems to be winning a lot of primaries. 

Tom DeLay could lose

There has been a ton of coverage over the Democrat's plan to beat Tom DeLay in his own district.  Impossible, I thought.  The research I did astounded me. 

In 2004, attorney Richard Morrison garnered 41% of the vote against DeLay.  DeLay spent $3,143,559, to Morrison's $685,935.  So a no name candidate without political experience who got outspent 3-1 came with 9% of defeating Tom DeLay (who has represented this area in Congress since 1984)? 

Truthfully, it's a wonder Democrats haven't targeted this district before.  In 2002, DeLay beat his opponent 63% to 35%, after outspending him $1,298,709 to $192,709, a margin of greater than 6-1. 

Could DeLay have problems with the Republicans in his district?  The evidence suggests this is the case.  DeLay garnered 80% of the vote in a 2002 primary challenge from a total no name.  Aside from challenger Mike Fjetland himself and his family, the rest of the 20% was a protest vote of one sort or another.  Still not satisfied?  In 2000, as George W. Bush carried this district over Al Gore 68% to 32%, DeLay won by only 60%, while his opponent received 36%.  In 2000, DeLay spent $1,298,995 against another no name opponent.  What did she spend?  A whopping $6,597, not enough to run a legitimate city council race. 

The Democrats could match DeLay dollar for dollar in this district.  A real shot at beating DeLay would open Democratic pocketbooks across the country.  For his part, DeLay plans on spending $5 million dollars, according to the Wall Street Journal. 

According to the Houston Chronicle, potential challengers include former Congressman Nick Lampson (who represented about a third of this district in Congress before losing his seat in 2004), Houston City Councilman Gordon Quan (who is elected citywide), and 2004 challenger Morrison.  They are meeting today to decide which of the three will run.  In another twist, former Republican Congressman Peter McCloskey is flying to Texas to recruit a primary challenger against DeLay. 

Tom DeLay was admonished three times last year by the House Ethics Committee, and a grand jury is reviewing his political activities.  Before these stories dominated the news cycle, Tom DeLay was running surprisingly close races against underfunded no name novices.  Tom DeLay could lose. 

It wasn't me, it was my...

As campaign technology gets more sophisticated, there is still one problem that hasn't been solved; how to budget the candidate's time?  Helicopters (first used by Lyndon Johnson in his 1948 Texas Senate race) and airplanes may move candidates around faster, and scheduler's do the best they can, but the fact remains, the candidate can only be in one place at once. 

Per the Arizona Republic:

SAN ANTONIO - Mayoral hopeful Julian Castro really wasn't in two places at once. His twin brother took his place in a parade this week, waving to the crowd of thousands.

Castro told the Associated Press on Wednesday that he had a conflicting event and didn't intend to deceive anyone.

"We can't help that we look like each other," said Castro, a City Council member and leading contender in next month's election.

Nice comeback from the opposition here:

"If you're 18 years old and having a date, it might be a youthful prank when you swap out your brother. But when you're running for mayor of a city with 1.3 million people and send in your brother as an impersonator . . . I do see a problem with it."