POP & POLITICS

President Huckabee?

An unlikely candidate gets great press from David Broder today. 

Now 49, he is part of a bewildering variety of networks. A preacher for 12 years, he headed the Arkansas Baptist State Convention before being elected lieutenant governor and succeeding the scandal-tainted Jim Guy Tucker as governor in 1996. But at 1 a.m. last Sunday, he could be found wearing a Hawaiian shirt, playing bass guitar and leading his rock band of fellow Arkansans, called Capitol Offense, at the NGA staff party in Raccoon River Brewing Co., a downtown beer hall.

The band has played from Hollywood to New York as the opening act for such stars as Aretha Franklin, making Huckabee comfortable chatting with everyone from devout Baptist elders to tattooed rock 'n' rollers.

As if that weren't enough, the self-described onetime "fat boy" is someone who, confronted with diabetes, put himself on a medically supervised diet in 2003, shed 110 pounds and emerged fit enough to finish this year's Little Rock Marathon. He describes his experience in the book "Quit Digging Your Grave With a Knife and Fork," and he has carried his zeal for healthy living into a variety of public programs.

Evangelical Christians, around a third of the Republican base, have no other obvious choice.  Every President elected for the past 30 years was a Governor or former Governor, with the exception of Vice President George H.W. Bush (who faced tepid opposition from Michael Dukakis).  If Haley Barbour of Mississippi doesn't run, Huckabee will be the only Governor in the race.  Huckabee seems like an interesting guy, with a good story to tell.  Could this marathon runner go the distance?

More reunions

So Hillary, what have you been doing since high school?

Hillary Clinton, the 2008 Democratic frontrunner, is going back to her high school reunion. 

George Allen's turn in the spotlight

George Will takes a look at the would be President from Virginia. 

Will states that social conservatives don't have a problem with Allen.  Could it be because his position on abortion, that it should be legal until a fetus has a brainwave or heartbeat (essentially, legal abortion for the first two months), is largely unknown?

More good news for McCain

The New Jersey primary is movin' on up.  New Jersey, with a new February primary, will be a major prize in the 2008 Republican nomination.  With it's current June primary, the Garden State has no opportunity to affect the outcome of the primaries.

John McCain is popular in New Jersey, and with early wins in Michigan, Arizona, and New Hampshire (all of which he won in 2000), New Jersey could seal the deal.  This move by New Jersey is part of a trend. 

...New Jersey is hardly alone in its electoral gambit. Since last year, a group of states including Alabama, Arkansas, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and several in the West have moved up their primaries or are contemplating doing so.

This is all good news for Arizona's senior senator.  McCain did well in Pennsylvania in 2000, after dropping out of the race.  He would be favored to win there.  The primary in Arkansas is irrelevant, as favorite son Governor Mike Huckabee will be in the race.  Alabama and North Carolina primaries might favor Southerners Bill Frist, George Allen, and Huckabee. 

The bottom line, however, is that a "frontloaded" primary system favors the candidate with the best organization, the best name recognition, and the most money.  In these all important criteria, John McCain is in a league of his own. 

Add a new name to the list

Wow.  This was unexpected.  Joe Biden, Senator from Delware, is planning on seeking the Democratic nomination for President. 

Biden was a County Commissioner when in 1972, at the age of 29 (!!!), he challenged and unseated an incumbent Republican Senator.  In 1988, Biden was the frontrunner for the Presidential nomination; it was his to lose, and he lost it.  Biden, the Senate Judiciary Chairman who derailed Robert Bork's nomination to the Supreme Court, exited the race after a story (unfair, in my opinion), that he had borrowed lines from a speech by Neil Kinnock (head of the British Labour Party) without attribution.  This was on top of a smaller story about disciplinary action for dishonesty while in law school.  In fact, Biden had used Kinnock's lines a number of times, giving credit to him each time; the first time he forgot, the media pounced.

But it was his defeat that kept him alive.  Months after leaving the race, Biden felt sick and went to the hospital.  He had an anuerysm, and would have died if he had waited any longer.  If he had still been in the race, he would have certainly been somewhere in rural New Hampshire, hours from a hospital; he claims he would have ignored the pain in favor of continuing his scheduled as planned. 

Biden, former Foreign Relations Chairman, lost his wife and children in a car accident months after his election at age 29.  Eventually, he would remarry and have children.  For those who have called this nomination in favor of Hillary Clinton (pleading guilty myself to that), let's agree not to count out Biden.  He's forgotten more about second acts than we'll probably ever know. 

McCain/Jeb? Glad you agree with me!

Good to know that the conventional wisdom in Washington is coming around to where I've been. 

Gonna go door to door in Manchester?

Icarus will spend the next four years of his life running for President.  Not that his options were great to begin with; there was no opportunity to run for Governor or for the Senate.  The administration wouldn't hire him. 

It would have been hard to take a pass on 2004, when he quite nearly became the nominee.  I guess the lesson is, if you're going to risk everything you have, go all out and try to win.  If Edwards had matched John Kerry by putting just six million dollars of his vast fortune into the Presidential race, he would have won the caucuses, and probably the nomination, and perhaps the Presidency. 

Remember me? Mitt Romney!

What's a 40th high school reunion like for a Governor and presidential candidate? 

Warner getting started

With Hillary Clinton poised to suck the oxygen out of the 2008 Democratic primary, Governor Mark Warner (D-VA) is smart to be getting started early. 

Virginia Gov. Mark R. Warner (D) is forming a federal political action committee and has hired a former top aide to Vice President Al Gore to advise him on national politics, the governor's top political aide in Virginia said.

Don't bet on Warner to challenge Republican Senator George Allen, up for re-election in 2006.  Allen is a sure bet to run for President, and has a real chance of stopping McCain if he can stop shooting himself in the foot over abortion (he is pro-choice until a fetus has a heartbeat or brainwaves, a position sure to anger both sides).  It would be a tough race, and it would surely be decided on election day by a handful of votes.  Whoever loses the race is automatically out for 2008.  Why would Warner risk his status as a potential anti-Hillary for a Senate seat?  Only two people have been elected to the Presidency straight from the Senate; Warren Harding in 1920, and John F. Kennedy in 1960.  Besides the risk of losing (and therefore being disqualified in 2008), and the fact that Warner stands little to gain, he would waste valuable time in Virgnia that he could be spending in Iowa and New Hampshire.  His term ends in 2006, and he'll have two years to lay the groundwork for his presidential run. 

Hillary Clinton enjoys the status of an incumbent Vice President, seemingly unbeatable for the nomination.  But the desire to back a winner, a moderate, Southern governor with a successful business background, could propel him to a primary victory.  And Mark, you're worth over 200 million dollars; spend some if you need to, don't be John Edwards (if Edwards had rejected public financing and put in the same personal contribution as John Kerry, he'd have been the nominee and perhaps the President). 

Bottom line: a strong finish in Iowa and New Hampshire will keep Warner alive when the primaries go south, and early wins in South Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Virgnia could propel Warner to victory on Super Tuesday. 

McCain starring in Garden State

John McCain raised $300,000 last night for the New Jersey Republican party, which previously had $10,000 on hand.  McCain raised 66 million dollars in his last race for President, and this is further proof that nobody can touch him when it comes to fundraising.