The man who would be kingmaker

With days to go until the election, the election may yet make 2000 seem decisive and amicable by contrast.

33 potential outcomes could produce an electoral tie. Colorado's proposed Amendment 36 is still on the ballot.

Enter Richie Robb. Per the Washington Post:

If President Bush wins West Virginia, one of the state's five Republican electors says he might not vote for Bush to protest the president's economic and foreign policies.

South Charleston Mayor Richie Robb said based on his research, an elector has "qualified discretion" when it comes to casting a vote.

"There is an implied duty to vote for your party's candidate. But I don't think it's an explicit duty or responsibility," said Robb, a moderate Republican who has a reputation of being a maverick in the state party.

Still, Robb calls it "highly unlikely" that he would cast a vote for Democrat John Kerry. He said he might cast his vote for Vice President Dick Cheney or another Republican instead as a protest against Bush, meaning the president would lose out on one electoral vote.

By voting for Senator Kerry, Robb could award him the election. By abstaining, he could send the election into the House of Representatives, which would vote by state, with each state casting one vote (U.S. Constitution Article I Section 2 Clause 3). This would result in an easy Bush win.

How did it come to this?

According to the Center for Voting and Democracy:

Since the founding of the Electoral College, there have been 156 faithless Electors. 71 of these votes were changed because the original candidate died before the day on which the Electoral College cast their votes. Three of the votes were not cast at all as three Electors chose to abstain from casting their Electoral vote for any candidate. The other 82 Electoral votes were changed on the personal initiative of the Elector.

In 2000, an elector from the District of Columbia abstained to protest the lack of representation in Congress.

In 1988, an elector, also from West Virginia, voted for Lloyd Bentson (the Democratice Vice Presidential nominee) for President, and Michael Dukakis for Vice President, apparently to point out that her freedom to do so makes for a flawed system. Nobody seemed to notice.

The United States Supreme Court has held, in Ray v. Blair, that state parties could require potential electors to sign loyalty oaths to vote for their designated candidate. West Virginia does not have such a requirement. At this summer's state Republican convention, Robb was chosen to be one of five electors for President Bush.

West Virginia law does not require an elector to vote for their party nominee.

West Virginia Code § 3-1-14 reads in relevant part:

The presidential electors shall meet in the office of the governor at the capital of this state, on the day now appointed, or which shall hereafter be appointed, by the Congress of the United States and vote for the president and for the vice president of the United States in the manner prescribed by the Constitution and the laws of the United States.

Why is Richie Robb doing this?

Robb has, in the past, been a strong proponent of voting rights.

"We should consider an extension of the election period, for up to 30 days before the election," Robb said.

"Allowing people to vote during one 13-hour window, one day a year, pulls down the number of people voting. With a similar plan, Texas had one million people vote in 1996."

Charleston Gazette, January 29, 1999

Having an election decided by a single West Virginia elector would subvert the will of that state's voters, and if the race is close enough, the votes of over 100 million Americans. How does he reconcile this?

Does Robb blame Bush for interfering in local politics?

The State Republican Party hasn't gained any unity from President Bush's picks for U.S. attorney in the Northern and Southern Districts of West Virginia, but his selection has led to speculation about the political goals of one of them.

According to a published report, Bush forwarded the names of Army Col. Karl "Kasey" Warner and Ohio County Republican Chairman Thomas Johnston to the state's U.S. senators for the Southern and Northern Districts, respectively.

South Charleston Mayor Richie Robb said he didn't know anything about Johnston's skills as a lawyer, but he said Johnston accomplished "nothing" as chairman of a party subcommittee to coordinate county executive committees.

Robb said Warner's family is active in politics and his brother, Kris Warner, seems to be running a dual campaign to get Kasey Warner the U.S. attorney's job while promoting himself for state chairman.

Charleston Gazette, July 1, 2001.

Kasey's brother, Monty Warner, cleaned Robb's clock in the 2004 primary for governor, 26,041 to 11,824.

Maybe Robb feels personally snubbed by the President. He certainly has his attention now.

South Charleston officials are going straight to the top in their search for an honored guest at this year's Armed Forces Day Parade. Mayor Richie Robb sent a letter to President Bush inviting him to attend the 43rd annual celebration, scheduled May 17 and 18.

"It's always been our goal to land the commander in chief," Robb said. "I know (Bush) has shown interest in West Virginia. I guess I would too if that was the state that made me president of the United States."

In return for the invitation, the city got a basic form letter from the White House, thanking it for the offer and promising to keep it in mind as the date draws closer.

Charleston Gazette, January 3, 2002.

One of Robb's stated reasons is the war in Iraq.

South Charleston Mayor Richie Robb proposed a peace resolution at the winter meeting of the state Republican Executive Committee that failed on a voice vote.

Robb noted that West Virginia has had more combat deaths per capita than any other state, and provided the Electoral College victory for President George W. Bush.

That being the case, he said, the state Republican Party should ask Bush "to permit the full and, if necessary, permanent deployment of inspections prior to the engagement of hostile action against Iraq."

Charleston Gazette, February 25, 2003

Another one of Robb's complaints is "the economy." Does Robb blame Bush for West Virginia's hard times?

The Dow Chemical Co. has apparently laid off about 20 employees in the Kanawha Valley.

"What I've heard on the street is that they are going to be laying off 20-some people weekly, restructuring, and the total figure I've heard is 185," South Charleston Mayor Richie Robb said.

Charleston Gazette, March 16, 2004

Richie Robb has gotten lots of attention from his small hometown paper, but little more prior to his recent announcement. Now he is making headlines from Switzerland to New Zealand, and all across America. A Bronze Star winner, Robb was first elected mayor at the age of 28, in 1975. Doubtless he expected more for himself; he has failed to be elected to the state Supreme Court, and was beaten by more than 2-1 by a political novice in his recent run for governor. Understanding Robb's motivations could help us predict what he's going to do.

Comments

[Andrew Gray]

By voting for Senator Kerry, Robb could award him the election. By abstaining, he could send the election into the House of Representatives

Technically, he could award the election to Kerry by abstaining, it's just that you'd have to have a 269-269 tie first, which would confuse matters far too much anyway...

[Chris]

Andrew

Actually, the election couldn't end with 269 for Kerry and 268 for Bush. That would deny Kerry a majority of the electors, and it would send the election into the House.

[Ray]

How could the Electoral College have voted in 1998 and 2000 as this article says? They vote every four years! There was no Electoral College vote in 1998.

And the Constitution calls for an absolute majority of the "whole number" of electors, so you need 270 or more.